Category Archives: Probability

Liars Dice Bidding Probability Calculation

Liars Dice is a game for two or more players.  During a hand, each player rolls a set of die (typically starting the game with 5 die per player) under a cup to shield their hand from the other players.  Each player then progressively makes ever increasing bids as to the number of die of a certain face value that are contained in everyone’s collective hands.  The bid is based on what each player can see in their hand and the number of concealed die in the other players hand.  The hand starts with one player bidding on the number … Read the rest

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Baltimore, You’re More Likely to be Murdered Than Raped


The FBI routinely compiles crime statistics from the 260 largest cities in the United States (with a population of 100,000 or more).  By calculating the number of occurrences per capita (per 100,000 people) from those statistics one can compare and rank the probability of occurrence of the various crimes within each of  those cities. Baltimore’s crime statistics and ranking are listed below as derived from the 2015 FBI crime statistics. Generally, the highest ranking crime has been listed first; however, rape has been listed just under murder.  In reviewing Baltimore’s per capita statistics, it was noted that one is … Read the rest

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You’re a Sucker for Chasing New Powerball Jackpots

… and so am I.

While news of the astronomical Powerball jackpots are showing up everywhere, little is mentioned of the Powerball game changes on October 7, 2015 that are driving them up.  At that time the game was modified from a pick 5 of 59 white balls & 1 of 35 power balls (59/35) to a pick 5 of 69 white balls & 1 of 26 power balls (69/26) an the odds of winning went from 1 in 175,223,510 to 1 in 292,201,338 respectively.  The $2 ticket you purchase today has less chance of winning than one purchased prior Read the rest

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